ISSN 1758-678X
In This Issue
· In this issue
Editorial
· To abrupt change
Early warning of the Earth's tipping points will bring us closer to staving off abrupt climate change, but a societal tipping point is needed to achieve sustainability.
Correspondence
· Not so sweet after all?
o Dave S. Reay
· No reason for complacency
o Jason Hall-Spencer
Commentaries
· Crop–climate models need an overhaul
Estimates of how much food we can grow in a warmer world are out of date. Researchers need to switch to more rigorous multi-model ensembles.
o Reimund P. Rötter, Timothy R. Carter, Jørgen E. Olesen & John R. Porter
· Meet the humanities
An introduction needs to be made between the rich cultural knowledge of social studies and the natural sciences.
o Mike Hulme
Feature
· Sending out an SOS
Predicting abrupt changes in ecological systems could help stave off some of the worst impacts of climate change. But how close are we to foreseeing tipping points?
o Mason Inman
Snapshots
· Swimming against the tide
o Sid Perkins
· Greenland migrations track temperature trends
o Sid Perkins
Books and Arts
· Defying gravity
· On our bookshelf
Policy Watch
· Investors cool on climate change
With its short-term focus, the financial sector is largely turning its back on the climate challenge, shows a new study. Sonja van Renssen reports.
Market Watch
· Calculated risks
The insurance business must get to grips with climate science faster than most, Anna Petherickreports.
Research Highlights
· Our choice from the recent literature
News and Views
· Ecology: Fungal feedbacks to climate change
Climate change is known to affect the carbon balance of Arctic tundra ecosystems by influencing plant growth and decomposition. Less predictable climate-driven biotic events, such as disease outbreaks, are now shown to potentially shift these ecosystems from net carbon sinks to sources.
o Susan M. Natali & Michelle C. Mack
See also: Letter by Johan Olofsson et al.
· Policy: The perils of doing nothing
A lack of buy-in by the United States arguably represents the greatest obstacle to tackling climate change. A major new report urges America to take action to cut emissions and begin adapting to climate change.
o Nigel Arnell
· Sociology: The growing climate divide
Climate change has reached the level of a 'scientific consensus', but is not yet a 'social consensus'. New analysis highlights that a growing divide between liberals and conservatives in the American public is a major obstacle to achieving this end.
o Andrew J. Hoffman
· Atmospheric science: A man-made drought
The causes of the severe drought in the Sahel in the 1970s and 1980s are uncertain. Now a study provides the firmest evidence so far that emissions of aerosols from industrialized countries played a significant role, but other forcings cannot be ruled out yet.
o Michela Biasutti
· Economics: Opportunities from uncertainties
The inability to verify nations' reported progress towards emission-reduction commitments is a stumbling block in climate change negotiations. Narrowing uncertainties in the global carbon cycle could help overcome this obstacle.
o Gary W. Yohe
Review
· Early warning of climate tipping points
A tipping point occurs when an external forcing causes a qualitative change in a system. Human-induced climate change could push several large elements of the climate system, such as the Greenland ice sheet, past a tipping point. Given the severity of the potential impacts, early warning of these changes would be advantageous. This Review discusses the most promising approaches to early warning of tipping points.
o Timothy M. Lenton
· Greenhouse-gas emissions from energy use in the water sector
The processes of abstraction, conveyance and treatment of fresh water and wastewater are all energy-intensive processes. This systematic review shows that the growing energy use and greenhouse-gas emissions from the water sector are under-recognized, suggesting the need for energy use to be further quantified and integrated into water resources management.
o Sabrina G. S. A. Rothausen &
o Declan Conway
Letter
· Carbon balance of Arctic tundra under increased snow cover mediated by a plant pathogen
The importance of disease in modulating ecosystem responses to climate change remains poorly understood. A seven-year study of the effects of increased snow cover on tundra plant communities in Sweden found that, although plant growth was favoured by increased snow, biomass and carbon-balance trends were reversed by a pathogen outbreak.
o Johan Olofsson, Lars Ericson, Mikaela Torp, Sari Stark & Robert Baxter
See also: News and Views by Susan M. Natali et al.
Erratum
· Implementation and opportunity costs of reducing deforestation and forest degradation in Tanzania
o Brendan Fisher,
o Simon L. Lewis,
o Neil D. Burgess,
o Rogers E. Malimbwi,
o Panteleo K. Munishi,
o + et al.
Beyond Boundaries
· Coping with change
Carmenza Robledo brought together a diverse group of experts from resource management to information technology and policy to assess how forest ecosystems help African rural communities cope with extreme weather events.